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End of the World

Doomsday tales have been around for literally thousands of years, in almost all cultures. The modern year 2,000 doomsday worries stem from the concept of Christ's second coming. Some people suggest that Nostradamus, the 16th century physician, was a prophet and predicted that the world would come to an end on July 4, 1999. Are you ready for that? There have literally been hundreds of dates that have been prophesied as the "Second Coming," most of which have passed without incident. The year 2,000 association is a relatively new phenomenon.

Besides, it all depends on the calendar you use. The year 2000 that we have today wasn't going to be the year 2,000 until 532¹, when a roman scholar, Dionysius Exiguus, made an estimate of Jesus' birth. Of course, he did that in Anno Diocletian 248, according to the calendar in use at the time. This was the first introduction of counting years from the birth of Christ, calling it Anno Domini (Year of our Lord), or A.D. for short. Pope Gregory decided to dump the old Roman calendar all together in 1,563ce, and by 1,582ce the use of calendar years based on the birth of Christ began to really catch hold in Christian Europe, and eventually spread to other countries wishing to trade with Europeans. The USA didn't get the hang of it until 1,752ce!

Now if you are using the traditional Chinese calendar, which millions and millions of people still do for cultural events, it is already the year 4697. You missed the Y2K problem altogether! Japan will never have a year 2,000 problem, since the official calendar is based on the year of the reign of the living Emperor. The Japanese Calendar will be Heisei 12 in the Gregorian year 2,000.

The ancient Aztecs, had they survived, wouldn't need to worry about Y2K for another 989 years. But really, the closest calendar doomsday would have been the Mayan calendar, which predicted the end of the world in 2012. But the world ended for the Maya civilization over 1,500 Years ago.

If you're reading this after July 4, 1999, then Nostradamus' prophecy wasn't accurate. That shouldn't be so surprising, because his predictions are ususally only accurate if they are "interpreted" after-the-fact or by someone trying to make money off the paranoid. The best use of Nostrodamus' prophecies might be found in this hilarious book, "Nostrodamus ate my Hamster," by Robert Rankin.

So, the way I figure it, with hundreds or even thousands of doomsday dates that have passed and the world is still spinning, this one's not going to make much difference. Of course, the world could still come to an end some day, but my worrying about what year that might be won't help.

Books

The Mask of Nostradamus : The Prophecies of the World's Most Famous Seer by James Randi A critical look at the prophesies of Nostradamus. He lived during the "Black Death," or the plague of Europe in the 16th century. Life for millions had been turned upside down. This book is expertly research to find out who Nostradamus was, what were his influences, and how to make sense out of his "quatrains." Are You Ready? : The Best and Worst Predictions for the Millennium by Dan Cohen, Daniel Cohen Calendrical Calculations by Nachum Dershowitz, Edward M. Reingold There is more than one way to measure time. Learn the history and calculations of 14 different calendars, some still in use, some historical. It isn't just adding or subtracting years!

More Links

What's in a Year? (NASA) Maya Calendar Calculator A Walk Through Time Ancient Calendars

Planetary Alignment

If the end of the world or doomsday stuff isn't a problem, then how about some other cosmic event, like the planets of our solar system lining up? "The sky is falling," was Chicken Little's concern, maybe I should be worried too?

There are many people who are worried that the planetary alignment will cause massive earthquakes and destroy the continents, or draw magma up to the surface making huge volcanos. Some think it will tilt the earth and change our climate, melting polar ice caps and cause catastrophic flooding. There are also some who think it will knock asteroids from the asteroid belt and send them crashing into earth.

Looking to the sky to understand events on earth has been happening at least as long as recorded history. Unfortunately, the interpretations of the stars are as varied as the people who interpret them.

As far as I can gather, the oldest known practice of paying attention to alignments of heavenly bodies can be traced to about 2,700bce (according to the Gregorian calendar, that is) at Stonehenge in England. Of course, other cultures had to have been doing something similar at about the same time. There are records in Egypt and Mesopotamia of solar, lunar and other measurements that are only a few hundred years later.

In modern times, people have used planetary alignments for many social purposes. GaiaMind used the alignment in January 27, 1997 as a time to gather people all over the earth to ponder about our common home. And, there have been many other planetary alignments recently that have caused some groups to be concerned.

According to the Earth & Sky radio show, however, these common occurrences haven't ever caused an earthquake, storm or any other natural disaster. In fact, a much more precise alignment happened in 1861, and 1982, both years being pretty normal. You can see alignments on other dates for yourself.

I decided to go to the source of things "spacey" and asked a NASA scientist what might really happen on May 5, 2000. (OK, not directly). NASA even has their own "Official Planetary Alignment Report that talks about the destructive potential of the alignment.

Since the Earth hasn't fallen apart in the some 45 million planetary alignments that have occurred since it was formed, I think worries about this one are just BadAstronomy.

Books

Chicken Little by Steven Kellogg (Illustrator) The sky was falling for this young astrologer friend. Stonehenge Revealed by David Souden Updated archaeological techniques enable scientists to more fully understand this ancient site, and the people who built it. Peterson First Guide to the Solar System by Jay M. Pasachoff, Wil Tirion (Illustrator), Roger Tory Peterson A great guide that will help you find the planets each night.

More Links

Century Bug

The Y2K computer bug is something a little more tangible than an arbitrary year or some planetary alignment wreaking havoc. The Y2K computer bug amounts to some computers mistakenly thinking that Jan 1, 2000 is Jan 1, 1900, and thus making a mess of some calculations, or even crashing.

It should be called the "Century Bug." It has nothing to do with the millenial year 2,000 in particular, but everything to do with the turn of a century. If computers had been invented 100 years earlier, we'd be calling it the Y1.9K bug. But that doesn't sound as ominous.

Some people fear that on January 1, 2000, power stations will spontaneously shut down, planes will crash, sewers will back up, refrigerators will stop working, or even nuclear reactors will blow up killing millions of people, all because of a possible date calculation error. There are many companies selling survival kits to worried people who think that this computer thing will stop civilization as we know it.

Having worked as a programmer and business manager in the software industry since 1979, I know a bit about the nature of the century bug. It amounts to programmers trying to shave two bytes off a record by omitting the century digits to save some valuable space or time. None of the programmers thought their programs would last to the turn of the century, but they did.

So what are these companies doing to fix the problem? As I said at the beginning, nearly every company has a web page to describe it. I couldn't possibly check them all out, so I thought I'd find one company that affects every American, in a big way. I could have picked Microsoft, but if you're using Windows 95 or later, chances are good that your computer (and most, if not all of the software) is OK. Besides, not everyone uses Windows, or even has a computer for that matter.

I figured the most important company to check up on was GE. Even if you don't have a computer, GE affects you. GE is one of the world's largest companies. They make light bulbs and fridges, you knew that. But they also make a lot of jet engines and nuclear reactors. They make a whole department store of medical equipment, and they even own a chunk of the NBC television network. GE Financial Services could have lent you the money to buy the computer you're using, or GE Capital could have helped finance the company for whom you're working. After all, it's GE that "Brings good things to life," so if GE doesn't have their act together for Y2K, then I think we're all sunk.

Here's what GE's website has to say about their plans for Y2K.

"Each business has a Year 2000 leader who oversees a multi-functional remediation project team responsible for applying a Six Sigma quality approach in four phases:" (From GE's Year 2000 website.)"

What?

I wonder if the average employee at GE can even understand what that means? This is all getting way out of control.

This same thing happened with paper records in 1900. But then there were humans doing the math, so they caught the problems one by one and fixed them, without a hitch. In fact, many companies are already in fiscal year 2000, with their computers calculating dates in the new century.

Most possible problems have already been fixed. 45 States had their fiscal year 2000 beginning on July 1, 1999, and none have yet reported any problems (C|Net). You can rest assured your tax bill will come due on time, and they'll probably be accurate.The US banking regulators report that 98.3% of all US banks are "Y2K Ready," (CNN), and the data networks that manage your money have passed all Y2K tests (Reuters). Most major cities have either already completed Y2K preparations or are well on their way to completing them by October 1 of 1999 (CNN Interactive). Even the US Department of Defense, the last to gear up for Y2K, looks like it will be doing just fine (C|Net).

I can't see the grocery store preferring to let the milk spoil than sell it to you, just because their computer is a little messed up. I don't imagine a farmer will be anxious to let his crops rot, because somebody sent him a bad invoice. The US economy is expected to see almost no effects of the Y2K bug. (LA Times).

There may actually be some localized problems with the Century Bug. A few companies may miscalculate a bill, or somebody may misplace a package. But most of the systems that track life threatening things don't care much about the year 2,000.

A little common sense can go a long way here. Nearly all Y2K computer problems will be related to calculating bills. So keep paper copies of your account statements until July 1, 2000. If a problem arises, most companies will be glad to work with you to correct it. And then it will be over.

¹ Learning Family uses the terms ce (current era) and bce (before current era) when stating dates. These conventions are becoming accepted standards in academia in order to show a more religiously unbiased reference. For convenience, the term ce corresponds directly to A.D. (Anno Domini) and therefore bce corresponds directly to B.C. (Before Christ). We feel it important to include people of all faiths in our "Family," so we have chosen to use these independent terms. [Back to article] 

Disclaimer: This checklist is provided for information purposes only. Learning Family makes no guarantees regarding individual needs or circumstances, and offers no warranty for the suitability of this checklist for any individual. Learning Family does encourage individuals, families, communities and corporations to examine their own needs, exercise caution in preparing for any emergency, and to avoid undue hysteria which may actually be a greater cause for harm than the original problem.

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